The numbers portend a potentially historic result in a traditional swing state. If Biden wins New Hampshire by more than 10 percentage points, it would be the biggest victory by a Democratic presidential nominee there since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 28-point win in 1964.
The poll also found Republican Governor Chris Sununu and Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen poised to be reelected in blowouts.
In an unsettling year and a month full of twists, most voters indicated Trump’s early October surprise didn’t affect them. Some 78 percent of respondents said his positive COVID test and recovery did not change how likely they are to vote for him.
“I had made my mind up a long time ago,” said Megan Burleson, 34, an elementary school physical education teacher from Rindge, who is a Democrat and will be voting for Biden.
Republican Holly Robacher of Dover also knew she was voting for Trump long before absentee ballots began to be sent out about three weeks ago.
“Do I believe Trump is abrasive? Sure. But put a gray circle over his face and look at what he has accomplished as president and he gets my vote,” said Robacher, who works as a finance director at a local nonprofit.
Trump’s public handling of his own illness only reinforced to emergency room doctor David Benson why he would be voting against Trump.
“His flaunting of everything health professionals are saying, especially the mask thing, drives me nuts,” said Benson, a 44-year-old who is among the estimated 78,500 New Hampshire voters who had already mailed in their ballots by midday Tuesday. (By way of comparison, there were 744,000 New Hampshire voters in the 2016 election.)
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which conducted the survey, said the results don’t mean that New Hampshire is totally a lock for Biden. With 65 percent of those polled saying they will vote in person on Election Day, the state’s four Electoral College votes could be in play until the end, depending on any more campaign surprises.
“In my polling around the country, New Hampshire has a uniquely high percentage of people who plan to vote on Election Day. This means that, theoretically, the race here could still be fluid and react to any late-breaking developments,” he said.
When 41-year-old Democrat Marisa DiBiaso of North Hampton was asked why she planned on voting in person, she said, “It’s easier to just show up in person than to figure out all the steps on how to vote by mail.”
Biden isn’t the only candidate on the ballot with a large lead. Shaheen leads businessman Bryant “Corky” Messner, a Republican, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Sununu leads Democrat Dan Feltes, the state Senate majority leader, 55 percent to 31 percent.
Sununu’s lead stands out given his party affiliation on a ballot where Democrats otherwise look on track to trounce their competitors. New Hampshire Democrats have continually tried to tie Sununu to Trump, whom Sununu has endorsed for reelection.
Politically that strategy makes sense given that the poll found only 40 percent of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of Trump, while 55 have an unfavorable view of him. But state Democrats’ strategy doesn’t seem to be working. The poll found a majority of the state’s non-party-affiliated voters and even 21 percent of Democrats voting for Sununu.
Among the ticket-splitting Democrats who are voting for Biden, Shaheen, and Sununu is 27-year-old nursing assistant Avian Jackson of Manchester.
“Sununu seems like a nice guy and not like Trump at all,” said Jackson. “[Sununu] especially handled the coronavirus better than Trump did.”
Bill Gard, 77, a retired insurance executive from Meredith who cut his lifelong ties to the Republican Party during the Trump presidency, put it this way: “I have no reason in the world to throw Sununu out and every reason to throw Trump out."
The survey also delved into issues beyond the horse race.
In the “Live Free or Die” state, where not even a seat belt is required for adults, half of poll respondents said Sununu should immediately require residents to wear a mask or face covering in public when they cannot socially distance. However, the state was largely split along partisan lines. Among Democrats, 84 percent supported a mask mandate, while 61 percent of Republicans said either that there should be no mask mandate or that it should be up to local communities rather than the state.
The poll of 500 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by live operators calling respondents on landlines and mobile phones.
Other recent polls have found similar results in the presidential race. The Real Clear Politics average of New Hampshire polls shows Biden with an 11-point lead, up considerably from his statistical tie with Trump in a New York Times/Siena College poll in September.
Biden’s strong position can be explained in part by his large leads among women, the young, and unaffiliated voters — those not registered with a party — the data show.
The former vice president has a 19-point lead among women, for example.
Biden’s strength in New Hampshire is particularly notable because he has largely ignored the state, while his opponent and his allies have made it a focus.
Trump and Vice President Mike Pence both made New Hampshire stops in the last two months.
While Jill Biden and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have hit the state to stump on his behalf recently, Joe Biden has not campaigned in New Hampshire since February. His running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, hasn’t campaigned there in more than a year.
But New Hampshire voters seem to be receptive to the messages coming from Biden’s campaign, which has run on the theme of restoring “the soul of America.”
The survey offered respondents 10 issues and asked them which one is the most important facing the next president. A plurality of Republicans said it was jobs and the economy. A plurality of Democrats said it was COVID-19. But a plurality of unaffiliated voters said the biggest issue facing the next president was “bringing the country together.”
“We are seeing this increasingly around the country with people saying we need to heal a deeply politically divided nation after the events of the last three years,” said Paleologos, of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
James Pindell can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell.
A new poll of registered New Hampshire voters showed President Donald Trump is trailing more than 10 points behind his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, in the “Live Free or Die” state the Republican incumbent lost narrowly in the general election four years ago.
The poll, published Wednesday and conducted by Suffolk University and The Boston Globe, surveyed 500 likely Nov. 3 general election voters in the Granite State and found 204 respondents, 40.8% of those polled, said they would cast their ballots for trump while 255, 51%, would vote for Biden.
Another 12 respondents, 2.4%, said they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, and only 14 of the polled individuals, 2.8%, said they were undecided.
The Suffolk/Globe poll, which was conducted via live telephone interviews, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Of the 500 people polled, roughly 30.8% were Democrats, 31.4% Republicans and 35.2% independent voters.
Biden appears to be leading by significant margins among nearly every demographic of voters in New Hampshire: women, independents, white individuals, people of color, voters 18-34 years old as well as individuals above the age of 50.
The former vice president holds a narrow, 1-point lead among male voters, and he is tied with Trump among people ages 35-49. The incumbent president is leading Biden among gun owners by 111 respondents to 80, or 54% to 39%.
Recent national polls have similarly showed Biden ahead of Trump by more than 10 percentage points, with the former vice president leading by smaller margins in battleground states.
A national poll published by The Washington Post and ABC News last week showed Trump a dozen points behind Biden, with voters trusting the candidates nearly equally on the economy but favoring the Democratic candidate by a wide margin on handling the coronavirus pandemic.
During a time of political and economic turmoil, with the current public health crisis ravaging Americans' health and finances, 122 poll respondents, 24.4% of those surveyed, said the economy is the most important issue facing the next president.
Not far behind were COVID-19 and bringing the country together. Both issues were ranked the most important by roughly 19% of the respondents.
More than half of the respondents, 276 polled individuals, said they believe the country is headed on on the wrong track.
Nearly the same number of New Hampshire voters - 273 people, or 54.6% of the respondents - said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency.
Another 47.8% of respondents, 239 New Hampshire voters, ranked Trump’s handling of the ongoing pandemic poor.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told the Globe the poll results do not necessarily mean New Hampshire is a locked-in victory for Biden, though. As many as 324 of those polled, nearly 65% of the respondents, said they would vote in person on Election Day, leaving room for surprises on Nov. 3.
“In my polling around the country, New Hampshire has a uniquely high percentage of people who plan to vote on Election Day. This means that, theoretically, the race here could still be fluid and react to any late-breaking developments,” Paleologos told the newspaper.
The individuals surveyed in the poll were from across New Hampshire’s 10 counties, and they were polled from Oct. 8-12, days after the first presidential and vice presidential debates.
Slightly more of the polled New Hampshire voters, 15 surveyed individuals, believed Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, won the debate over Republican Vice President Mike Pence.
Of the 500 people polled, 156 said they would be comfortable with Pence as president, and 166 said the same about Harris.
Exclusive NH Tracking Poll: Pete Buttigieg Stays Hot, Ties Bernie Sanders For Lead
BOSTON (CBS) – New Hampshire – Hoosier daddy now? In the latest exclusive WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, Pete Buttigieg continues his remarkable post-Iowa surge.
Bernie Sanders is holding steady at 24 percent, but Buttigieg is up four points over last night with 23 percent, a virtual tie in a survey with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.READ MORE: Weymouth Mayor Asks Committee To Name New School Gym After Fallen Sgt. Michael Chesna
Elizabeth Warren takes over third place with 13 percent, and Joe Biden slips to fourth with 11 percent.
Mayor Pete’s gains don’t seem to be coming at the expense of Sanders, whose numbers haven’t changed much all week. Instead, Buttigieg seems to be attracting registered Democrats. And his biggest gains appear to be raided from key backers of Warren and Biden.
Among women, Warren is down four points from Wednesday night and Buttigieg is up six.
And among voters over 65, a core source of Biden backers, Buttigieg has doubled his support overnight, a 16 point jump.
READ MORE:NH Tracking Poll|CrosstabsREAD MORE: Boston-Based Urban Farm Specializes In Growing Microgreens
The Buttigieg surge shows up dramatically in the numbers from Hillsborough County, the state’s largest, home to Manchester and Nashua, the type of urban/suburban mix where Democrats will have to run up the score in November.
On Thursday night, Buttigieg was pulling 27 percent there, a stunning 19 point increase since Monday.
Sanders is at 18, down six from his peak Hillsborough County showing on Tuesday.
Biden started the week tied with Warren at 19 percent there. Thursday night they were drawing 12 and 14 percent respectively.
“His movement is real,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “For savvy older voters, it looks to me that when the electability argument went away for Biden, where else were they going to go? There’s nothing about him they dislike. His positions are close to Biden’s, and he’s the next most comfortable alternative to Biden.”
With this kind of momentum, says Paleologos, Buttigieg could run away with this race unless something happens to slow his roll. And if you’re his competitors, Friday night’s debate might be the last chance to do that.
The WBZ-TV/Boston Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll is a two-day rolling sample of 500 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters which will continue through Sunday night.MORE NEWS: Hopkinton High School Is First To Get State Approval To Drop Mask Mandate
Join WBZ Friday night at 11 for yet another chapter in this red-hot race.
|Suffolk University Political Research Center|
|Type:||Polling research center|
Suffolk University Political Research Center has conducted national and statewide polls since 2002. Pollster David Paleologos founded the center, which is affiliated with Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts. According to its website in September 2020, Suffolk has produced "bellwether survey analyses with an 89% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes—in Massachusetts, battleground states, and nationally."
The Suffolk University Political Research Center was founded in 2002. It was the first college-based research center that included undergraduates on its team. As of September 2020, the center's website highlighted the following accomplishments:
Suffolk University presidential polls have predicted outcomes in key battleground states including Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Having conducted extensive polls and bellwether surveys in the 2004 presidential election and beyond, SUPRC has now expanded its reach overseas. Suffolk was the only U.S. university to poll the 2017 French election. The Center found that Emmanuel Macron led his opponent, Marine Le Pen, by 16 points in the run-up to France's presidential runoff. Macron did indeed win by a comfortable margin.
Suffolk said it was the first research center to offer demographic cross-tabulation data for free for all polls.
Suffolk conducts live telephone interviews with samples that feature both cell phones and standard landlines. In both national and statewide polls, the respondents are grouped into a number of general regions. Suffolk uses a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which was described in their methodology as meaning "phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections."
Suffolk released presidential polls in mid-September 2020 finding former Vice President Joe Biden (D) leading President Donald Trump (R) in Maine, its two congressional districts, and North Carolina. In its national poll the same month, Suffolk found Biden's lead narrow to seven points, down from 12 in June 2020.
FiveThirtyEight ranked Suffolk the third-best pollster during the 2020 presidential primaries based on the average error of polls in the final 21 days of the election. According to an analysis of 88 polls, FiveThirtyEight gave Suffolk an overall grade of A on May 19, 2020. It was one of only six polls to receive that rating.
The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms 'Suffolk University Poll'. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.
- ↑ 1.01.1Suffolk University, "Polls," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑Suffolk University, "Political Research Center," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑Suffolk University, "National Polls 2020," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑Suffolk University, "SUPRC Polling in Other States," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "Latest Polls," accessed September 24, 2020
- ↑Suffolk University, "Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Biden Lead Dropping into Single Digits," September 2, 2020
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "We’ve Updated Our Pollster Ratings Ahead Of The 2020 General Election," May 19, 2020
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings," May 19, 2020
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